RD Delphi –method as a tool of futures making
– Clusters development and cityplanning
The Delphi-method is the main method futures studies (FS). This method utilize expert information.
In Finland there is one of the most active Futures Studies community and especially in Delphi-method. Finland Futures Research Centre has established in beginning of 1990. Background of this there is The Finnish Society of Futures Studies. There is also world’s first committee of Future in Finland’s Parliament. Regional Development Ltd’s CEO Yrjö Myllylä is expert or member in each of these groups.
What is futures research? Currently according to main flow it help commons to see what they want and what is possible taking account different kind of opinions. In every case in futures research or futures making is necessary to take people or theirs representative who can influence to future, to futures research and making process. We can see, that question is “method question” how to take people to make their future.
There is two sophisticated method for futures studies and to utilizing expert information. We can characterized them by operating system. These are Delphi-method and Futures work shop –method. When we want the best result, we can combine these and also utilize relevant historical time series and other information for background material.
The Delphi-application by RD Aluekehitys Oy / Regional Development Ltd has evaluated the European Union’s the best regional foresight method
In fact this kind of method using has evaluated European Union the best regional foresight method in 27 EU’s members compairing. Subscriber for evaluating was EU Comission and it done United Nations International Labour Organisation. Results published in Bruxels 18.10.2010 in EU Comission’s restructuring management seminar. Method concepts developed by Regional Development Ltd in co-operation with subscriber Centre for Economic Development, Transport and Environment with its foresight expert Jouni Marttinen.
Benefits of the Delphi methodology
The use of the Delphi method has several advantages. The method is justified, inter alia, as follows [15, 16, 27–29, 12] (See Myllylä & Kaivo-oja 2015):
(1) The problem is not a valid approach for a precise analytical method;
(2) Collective and subjective estimates are potentially useful in problem solving;
(3) The problem is extensive or complex, and participating in the review there is no common language or method;
(4) The test problem of determining the need for more people than the efficient working group could be;
(5) The dispute between the experts forced to use intermediaries,and
(6) It is necessary to act anonymously, in order to avoid the majority of strong personalities and opinion leadership of the group.
(7) Finnish methodology expert Jari Metsämuuronen [30, p. 300] also noted the Delphi method has the advantage that it is easy to connect to both qualitative and quantitative research approaches. This example of time-series and expert information joining strong perspective trends (SPT) in the detection part of the Delphi method is based on this very well, according to Delphi methodology expert Myllylä [12, p. 73–74].
(8) In addition, the Delphi method can be used to create a learning and innovation.
If you want apply Delphi-method for regional development issues, do not hestitate to take contact:
RD Aluekehitys Oy / Regional Development Ltd
CEO (Doctor of Social Sciences) Yrjö Myllylä
Meriusva 5, FI-02320 Espoo
Tel: + 358 500 450 578.
Visiting offices: Helsinki, Salo, Oulu.
Our representative in China and Asia:
China Tekway Ltd
Mr. Timo P. Kiviaho, Vice President,